By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. They run the gamut from. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. This claim is basically absurd. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. I hope.. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. And we just want that to continue. Im looking at both sides of it. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. I think its very political right now, honestly. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. Federalist: 5 Ways Biden Unusually Outperformed Norms Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. We have become so divided. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 - The Epoch Times There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. But according to the. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Theres significant variability among them, though. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. I think we needed somebody like him.. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Port Clinton, Ohio. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. This includes personalizing content and advertising. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. List of election bellwether counties in the United States Pre-performance Lobby events. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. 2016 Trump. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. We need creative leadership, Miller said. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. Timeline: Rep. Jim Jordan, a Systematic Disinformation Campaign, and If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. 0:00 0:00. We believe that there are two main reasons. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. Florida's I-4 corridor: Where presidents get picked dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; They need to take care of the older people here. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. Its crazy. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. Review: At Fall for Dance, Resilience Takes Center Stage A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. That is, until this year. Their fear is real, mine is. The Epoch Times - YouTube He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. Here's why. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. That is a very good thing to have. He considers Trump pro-life. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. He is his own worst enemy.. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. The candidate who curiously outperformed the bellwether counties? Trump He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. Bellwether - Wikipedia Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. Theres significant variability among them though. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence I dont listen to the news. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Kyiv City Ballet US Premiere | Dance at Northrop Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. A recent history of presidential election bellwether counties - Ballotpedia Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance.